Forex Fundamental Analysis : The yen returned to 119.00
By the end of the trading day the euro fixed its consolidation against the dollar. We expect the France, Germany, euro area as well as the manufacturing sector and the service sector PMI index preliminary assessment for December with the positive changes. We expect the euro zone overall and core consumer price index, though it will remain the same this year, but it will note a month decrease -0.2% m/m, -0.1% m/m, respectively.
The euro showed a moderate upward trend, recovering from the lows at the level of 1.2250-1.2270. The resistance near 1.2500-1.2520 continues to hold back the bulls attack.
The support levels are 1.2405-1.2425, and the resistance levels are 1.2500-1.2525.
MACD is in a positive territory.
Should the pair break the resistance at the level of 1.2500-1.2520 we can expect the temporary basis formation confirmed by the resistance breakthrough near 1.2580-1.2600. The euro inability to overcome the 25th figure can lead to another euro/dollar sales wave with a possible lows breakthrough.
The pair GBP/USD held trades in a very narrow side corridor and closed the session almost on the opening prices. Forecasts suggest that the UK price pressure will show a decrease – the consumer price index (CPI) of 0.1% m/m and + 1.2% y/y vs. + 0.1% m/m, + 1.3% y/y. Earlier, the retail price index (RPI) -0.1% m/m, + 2.2% y/y after + 0.0% m/m, + 2.3% y/y in October. The pair was trading gradually moving away from the lows at the level of 1.5530-1.5550. The pair recovery was limited by the resistance near 1.5730-1.5750. The pair rebounded from this resistance and tested the support level of 1.5630-1.5650.
The support levels are 1.5630-1.5650, and the resistance levels are 1.5730 – 1.5750.
MACD is in a neutral territory.
While the pound is trading below the resistance at the mark of 1.5730-1.5750, the risks of renewed decrease will be saved, so only its breakthrough and the ability to consolidate above this level will indicate a willingness to continue an upward correction. The next target will be resistance around 1.5800-1.5820.
The yen spent the day in the narrow range against the US dollar. However the pair closed the trading session with a decrease. The 4th quarter Tankan large manufacturers activity showed a decrease to 12 compared to 13 previously when it was expected no change. The yen returned below the psychological level of 120.00-120.20 and fell below 117.95-118.15. The yen recovery attempts were limited by the resistance near 119.25-119.45.
The support levels: 116.95-117.15, and the resistance levels: 117.95-118.15.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
The current low can give rise and the dollar will resume its growth, again breaking through the level of 120.00-120.20, resulting in the yen return to 121.85. Its inability to break through 120.00-120.20 will increase the risks of completion the level of 116.95-117.15.